(Dr. Dan Geller) |
Guest Post: Dr. Dan Geller the Behavioral Finance Scientist
People will repeat the same six financial habits each time
the economy goes through a cycle.
A breakthrough study in financial behavior, or
Behavioralogy, shows that people repeat their financial behavior in a highly
predictable manner based on the state of the economy. The study, conducted by
Dr. Dan Geller - a behavioral finance scientist and the author of Money
Anxiety, found that people repeated their financial behavior in each of the
economic cycles during the last 50 years.
The study found that people "orient" themselves to
the state of the economy by repeating six financial-behavior patterns - three
related to their spending and three related to their savings. Each financial
behavior pattern corresponds to the stage in the economic cycle, i.e.
recession, recovery , expansion and decline. Here are the six financial habits:
1. Castle Craze
As soon as the economy improves and starts to expand, people
return to their favorite "sport" - bigger and better homes. The
"Castle Craze" financial behavior is about people's fascination with
the status symbol associated with success. The craze is not just for practical
consideration of having a place to live and for investment reasons, but also as
a statement of status and achievement. In good economic times, people will over
extend their finances just to win in the bigger, better and nicer national
competition.
2. Durable Diet
People go on a "Durable Diet" when the economy is
in a recession and they want to save money by prolong the life of their most
expensive possessions - automobiles and appliances. Typically, people will hold
off on replacing such durable items until the economy improves, or until the
item breaks down and must be replaced. The reason car sales have increased
dramatically in the last couple of years is exactly because during the
recession many people postponed replacing their cars as they would normally do.
3. Tiny Treats
People turn to "Tiny Treats" when they can't treat
themselves with what they really want - expensive items. When the economy is
transitioning, people are unsure if they should buy a new big screen TV or put
the money aside in case things don't get better economically. "Tiny
Treats" are a little compensation for giving up on the big things they are
not buying. During the last recession, the only category that exhibited high
growth in sales was personal care products and services. These are items such
as beauty and body treatments that are relatively inexpensive but make people
feel good.
4. Power Play
The "Power Play" behavioral orientation occurs
during the two transitional economic stages - recovery and decline. When the
economy is in transition, people are not sure what to do with their money -
spend it or save it for a rainy day. This is a power play between the urge to
spend and the instinct to save. Once the economy improves and expands, spending
wins, and when the economy transitions to a recession, savings wins in the
power play.
5. Rate Race
The "Rate Race" begins as soon as the economy
starts expanding and people are starting to chase after the highest interest
rate, or return on their money, they can find. Since financial confidence
increases during economic expansion, people are willing to take greater
financial risks. Thus, people divert more of their money from bank savings to
the equity market where rates of return are much higher in return for higher
risk.
6. Mattress Money
"Mattress Money" is our most basic behavioral
orientation in response to economic downturn and looming recession. It stems
from our instinct for self-preservation survival. When people feel financial
danger due to economic downturn, they start "hoarding" money by
shifting their bank deposits to liquid accounts that can be immediately
withdrawn. Today, $8 of every $10 in bank savings is in "Mattress
Money" compared to only $6 prior to the last recession.
"If you want to know what people will do with their money
when the economy improves, just look back at what they have always done - Rate
Race and Castle Craze," Dr. Dan Geller suggests. "Similarly, when the
economy will slow down in the future, people will go back to Mattress Money and
Durable Diet."
So which one are you? I can admit that I fall into the Tiny
Treats category. I am not sure if Dr. Dan Geller can help break our bad
financial habits, but we’ve got to try to start somewhere.
Find out more about Money Anxiety and the Behavioral Finance
Scientist, Dr. Dan Geller at www.moneyanxiety.com.
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